Project Estimation Driven by Dungeons & Dragons
Description
A four-panel comic strip featuring stick-figure office workers. In the first panel, three developers are playing a tabletop role-playing game, likely Dungeons & Dragons. One says, 'OK, so I'll attack the dragon with my greatsword...', and another replies, 'OK, roll a D-10!'. In the second panel, a manager figure interrupts, saying 'Guys, stop playing! The client wants an estimate for the new project ASAP!'. The third panel is silent as the developers look at the manager. In the final panel, one of the developers, having just rolled the D-10 die, declares, 'It will take seven weeks.' The comic humorously critiques the often arbitrary and speculative nature of software project estimation, equating it to a random roll of the dice in a fantasy game. It resonates with experienced developers who have seen estimates pulled from thin air to satisfy stakeholder demands
Comments
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Agile estimation poker is just D&D for people who pretend their imaginary numbers are based on science
Rebranded the D10 as our “Monte Carlo hardware accelerator” - now the seven-week guess is a 95th-percentile forecast and finance calls it data-driven
The only difference between rolling a D10 and our estimation process is that the dice doesn't add a 40% buffer after consulting three different project management frameworks that all somehow arrive at the same arbitrary number
The real joke here is that rolling a D-10 for dragon damage is actually more rigorous than most enterprise estimation processes. At least with dice you get a uniform distribution and can calculate expected values - most project estimates are just vibes-driven development with a Fibonacci sequence thrown in to look scientific. Seven weeks? That's suspiciously close to a sprint boundary. This developer clearly rolled high on their Wisdom stat and knows that any number between 'two weeks' and 'three months' is equally defensible when you haven't even seen the requirements yet
We replaced planning poker with a d10: same accuracy, higher throughput, and the PMO calls it ‘Monte Carlo’ if we roll it three times
P-10 dragon in D&D? That's rookie hour. In enterprise Jira, it crits with legendary actions from stakeholders and still demands delivery yesterday
Estimation is just D&D for executives: roll a D10, call it planning poker, and pray the dragon isn’t named “dependencies.”